Are prices in The Highlands already going up this year?

In a previous post, I looked at last year's sales range for homes sold in the Lake Washington School District. Since the district covers a huge area, I got to thinking about the sales ranges in the Highlands for 2006. I also thought it would be good to see where we were already headed with prices for this year. We are almost at the end of the our first quarter, so it is a great time to look at this information.

The least expensive sale in 2006?

A home sold in Forbes Creek for $385,000. Forbes Creek is a PUD, a planned unit development. These homes are similar to condo neighborhoods as some of the homes have shared walls with the neighbors. There are home owners' dues, codes, and covenants. Legally, the home owners own the land sitting under the homes, so the homes are classified as single family homes.

The least expensive free standing home was in Waterwheel Park, adjacent to Forbes Creek. Waterwheel Park was built in the late 80's by Panterra. Panterra was a fairly active builder in Kirkland during that time. This home sold for $409,900 and had 1460 square feet.

The least expensive Highlands closed sale so far in 2007?

A rambler sold in Edwards Place for $454,500. This rambler was 1480 square feet, a 9% increase over last year's most affordable sales price.


The most expensive Highlands sale in 2006?

This home was in the new neighborhood of Altezza, the Mediterranean style homes located by 112th Ave NE. The most expensive home sale was $1,335,000 for a new home with a great view. These homes were built by C. P. Granger.

The most expensive sale in the Highlands for 2007?

Again, it's a home in Altezza. The last home in Altezza sold in January for $1,106,150, less expensive than the previous Altezza sale, but the last one in the plat.


My take on prices:

All of the closed sales for the first quarter were on the market at the end of last year. Our market was a little slower then, so it will be interesting to see the true price increases as the year progresses. I do not believe the high end is down in value, I think this sale just happened to be our one sale in the high end ao far this year.

What were the chances of a Kirkland home selling in February, 2007?

What were the chances of a home selling in Kirkland this past month?

Sales are only getting stronger in Kirkland. In February, there were 275 homes on the market in Kirkland. Of these homes, 82 sold. This means there was a 29% chance a home would sell in Kirkland. Inventory was almost the same as January of this year as there were three less homes on the market in February. Yet, sellers had a much better chance of selling this past month since the number of sales jumped from 17% in January to 29% in February. Eighty-two homes sold in February of this year. Sales were a much slower in January when only 48 homes sold.

Last year at this time, there were fewer sales. Only 65 homes sold in February, 2006. However, there also was less on the market at the time, with 245 homes available for sale. This February’s sales performance of 29% is similar to last year when 26% of the homes sold.

Let’s watch each month’s trend to see if sales performance peaks in the spring this year as it has most years. I will let you know in April how sales were in March. March is often one of the best months to sell a home in Kirkland each year, so it will be interesting to see how March turns out this year.

What were the chances of selling an Eastside home in February, 2007?

Monthly Statistics for February, 2007


So what were the chances of selling a home on the Eastside in February 2007?

Sellers had a 42% chance of getting a home sold in February.

This is a fabulous increase from the 33% chance sellers had to sell a home in January. Almost half of all the condos and homes listed in February received offers. This is obviously a very positive trend and it speaks volumes about the direction of our market. Thirty-two% of the homes for sale in December sold, 33% in January, and now in February there was a 42% chance of selling. The amount of properties on the market has increased by only 23 homes/condos, 3%, and the number of sales has increased by 9%.

Looking back at 2006, your odds of selling a home were a bit stronger in February 2006 than this February, but not by much, since 46% of the homes sold as compared to 42%. It will be interesting to watch if our typical yearly patterns continue this year as they have in most of the past years. If you take a look at the Eastside Summary reports (click on statistical reports for 2007) you can see how more of the inventory sells in the spring. Spring is generally more of the seller’s market. I predict the same market swings as we have generally seen in the past few years with the market more seller friendly in the spring and more buyer friendly as the year moves on.

Of course, each area is slightly different. For example, there is a much larger amount of homes available in on the plateau, Snoqualmie, and Issaquah north of I-90. There were almost 500 homes available in these areas. This is a result of the boom in construction that is happening in Snoqualmie right now. These new homes have added greatly to the amount of inventory available in these areas. However, if you look at some of the more established areas of the plateau such as in Sammamish, they, too, do not have many homes for sale.

If we look to areas such as Bothell, Woodinville, Duvall and Kenmore, 380 homes were available. The Kirkland area came in next with 275 homes on the market in February. Inventory declined sharply in many of the other areas such as Redmond/Carnation with 187 homes, West Bellevue with 114, West Redmond/East Bellevue with 98 homes, and Mercer Island with only 90 properties available. The lack of inventory in these areas explains some of the increase in appreciation in each of these areas. The median price of homes in West Bellevue has increased by 68% from last year! This will explain why in some areas homes will have more than one buyer and may sell with multiple offers.

Good news for condo buyers: available condos increased by 26% from 406 in February of last year to 515 this year. More condos sold than last year as 328 condos sold as compared to 301. Even with all the new construction condos being built in all price ranges and the huge number of condo conversions, there still is a dearth of inventory. If you look at February of 2003, there were about 1200 condos on the market, so 515 available now do not represent many condos. In the next few years, many more condos will come on line, particularly in the luxury market.

Don’t forget to look at the attached charts on my website for this past month and past year. (Click on statistical reports for 2007 and for January 2007). Look at statistics-year to date charts to find this information. These charts will clarify a lot of the information.

For those of you who are familiar with my monthly statistics reports, you can see I have changed the format. I try to present market information in the most meaningful way possible. I plan to spend time analyzing the information presented in the past to see if there is a better way to present the individual price range data. However, feel free to contact me if you do have questions about the performance of each of the different price ranges.

Debra’s monthly tip: Since you never know when you may sell, take photos of your yard as the season progresses. Great photos of your yard can always be used in marketing, even if you sell in the dead of winter!
http://debrasinick.com/docs/2007_Year_to_Date.pdf

So what was the most expensive home in the Lake Washington School District? What was the least expensive?

While reading through the NWMLS 2006 statistical recap I found the sales ranges in the Lake Washington School District for 2006. Here is what the report said:

Median price: $569,950
Average sales price: $668,508
Lowest sale price: $164,500—Except, this is wrong!
Highest sale price: $6,175,000

I found the mistake when I looked up the listings for these homes. The $164,950 “home” was actually a condo in Kingsgate! So the stat for the least expensive home in the LKW schools is incorrect. The listing agent had erroneously listed the property as a single family home, which it is not.

I looked up the real truth about the least expensive home in the Lake Washington Schools and after wading through a list that covered manufactured homes and homes out in the Riverview District, I found it. The least expensive home was located on Union Hill and sold for $240,000. Built in 1941, it’s a two bedroom, one bath home on a 9000 square foot lot. (I need to let the NWMLS know about the mistake.)

Now the most expensive home, which sold for $6,175,000, is located right in downtown Kirkland. I happened to preview this home when it was listed and it really was something special. It had been designed to be a home and an office space at the same time. The finishes were fabulous in this home.

This research has gotten me thinking and I will report about the least expensive and the most expensive 2006 home sales in the Highlands. Where were these homes and what were the sales prices? I will put this information in one of my next blogs.

What were the chances of a Kirkland home selling in January 2007?

As part of this blog for the Kirkland Highlands, I will look at the market performance and let you know what the sales activity was like for the previous month. I will answer this question each month:

What were the chances of a home selling a home in Kirkland this past month?

During January, 2007:

17% of the homes sold

There were 48 sales out of the 278 available homes

The month of January was a buyers' market as less than 45% of the homes sold.


How do I get this information? I look at the statistics each month which you can find in this link or on my website, www.debrasinick.com. I analyze the supply and demand for each month. If the percent of the homes selling is 45% or below, we are looking at a buyer’s market. If this percentage, which we call the absorption rate, falls between 45-55%, then we have a market balanced between buyers and sellers. A market in which 55% of the available homes sell is a seller’s market. Last year, sellers markets were found in March through June, while the rest of the year was more in the buyer’s camp.

Each week I receive information specific to each area and price range on the eastside. For example, if you want to know how many homes in the Kirkland area are for sale and sold for $750,000-$1,000,000 this past week, I can tell you. It is critical to know the absorption rate so you will know what your chances of selling will be. By examining the statistics, I am able to tell you this information. I am happy to share those facts with you at anytime so you know what is happening in the market.